The Finnish economy has started to recover again, and economic growth of two per cent is expected next year, according to a forecast published by OP Financial Group on Tuesday.
The recovery of the Finnish economy, which began promisingly in 2024, slowed down in early 2025.
OP’s economists forecast that Finland’s GDP will grow by 2.0% in 2026 and by 1.6% in 2027.
According to the latest economic forecast, the economic outlook has remained unchanged.
"Confidence in the Finnish economy has improved above the euro area level in recent months, and several economic indicators suggest that the economy has already begun to recover. Trade policy risks have eased, but not disappeared," said Reijo Heiskanen, Chief Economist at OP Financial Group.
The overall picture for exports is positive, although increased US tariffs will dampen the outlook in the near future.
The export outlook is supported by the recovery of key export markets in Northern Europe.
In addition, Finnish export price competitiveness is at a relatively good level, despite the strengthening of the euro.
The lowest point in the investment cycle has been passed. Corporate investments are picking up and the lowest point in construction is being left behind. In addition, public investments in defence improve the outlook.
"Uncertainty affected private consumption in the early part of the year, and the savings rate rose to the same level as during the coronavirus crisis. The latest data supports a recovery in consumption, and the conditions for recovery are good. The growth of disposable income is strengthening and there is room for the savings rate to fall from the exceptionally high level of the spring," Heiskanen added.
The unemployment rate rose to around ten per cent in the summer. In addition to the decline in employment, the background is a high labour force participation rate relative to the economic trend, an abundant supply of labour.
As economic growth recovers, employment will begin to improve, and the unemployment rate will start to decline.
The public sector deficit will remain at last year's levels this year and will decrease to closer to three per cent of gross domestic product in the coming years.
When the private sector consumes and invests more, the current account remains balanced.
- Finnish
- Economy
- Growth
- OP
- Forecast
Source: www.dailyfinland.fi
