Heightened geopolitical tension in 2025 has increased uncertainty in large Finnish companies, according to a survey commissioned by OP Financial Group.
The OP's Corporate Pulse survey said that companies are seeing major risks in changes to their business environment, said OP in a press release on Thursday.
However, there is no need for a passive defence strategy with investments.
Sixty per cent of large companies think that changes this year in the international business environment – such as the US tariff policy and heightened political tension – pose risks to business operations.
The same percentage of companies feel that their business environment has become more difficult to predict in 2025.
"We have entered an era in which geopolitics has a more direct impact on corporate strategies. In our view, companies are particularly concerned about the threat of protectionism and disruptions in international supply chains. Scenario work is becoming more and more important, and 57 per cent of companies have reported an increase in such work owing to changes in the international business environment," said Chief Executive Officer of OP Corporate Bank Katja Keitaanniemi.
However, a feeling of uncertainty has so far not led to any dramatic changes in investment plans.
Only 17 per cent of companies answering the survey in March or April said they were channelling their investments to ensuring continuity instead of aiming for growth.
A quarter of the respondents took a neutral stand and did not agree or disagree.
The US is one of Finland's chief export countries, accounting for 9.6 per cent of all goods exports. In April, US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on goods from the European Union. Trump has subsequently postponed most of the reciprocal tariffs by 90 days, with the exception on tariffs on China.
OP Financial Group's economists estimate that tariff increases and the resulting nervousness will erode around 1.5 per cent of Finnish economic growth in 2025 and 2026. Trump's tariff decisions have a significant negative impact on export growth.
The impact of the tariffs on service exports is expected to be lower than on goods exports, and OP Financial Group's economists forecast export growth to remain at 1.5 per cent, while service exports maintain their growth path.
Amid all the uncertainty, companies have prepared more for changes in the business environment. Sixty six per cent of the companies that answered survey said they had taken precautionary measures in case of changes in the value chain.
However, the threat of protectionism has so far not caused companies to change their global supply chains in any major way.
For example, only 16 per cent of the companies said have brought their supply chains to Finland or to the neighbouring region to fend off increased threat of protectionism. The majority of the respondents, 54 per cent, did not subscribe to this view.
The survey, commissioned by OP Financial Group and carried out by Taloustutkimus Oy, was answered by 100 Finnish companies with net sales of at least EUR 200 million. The survey was conducted by phone between 12 March and 8 April 2025.
- US tariff
- Risk
- Finnish
- Business
Source: www.dailyfinland.fi
